"Long Term Outlook"-Economic Transition Scenario-ETS

From 2025, our outlook splits into two scenarios.

1.primarily driven by techno-economic trends & market forces, & assumes no new policies or regulations are enacted that impact the market.

2.The second scenario,new for this year,investigates,what a potential route to net-zero emissions looks like for road transport sector by 2050.

under the ETS,passengers EV sales continue rising quickly as battery prices fall.

* after increasing rapidly over the next 15 years,EV sales growth in the ETS slows down slightly in the late 2030.in the main EV markets. like Europe,China & or the USA,as they begin to saturate.Households that have access to home charging go electric much faster than those that have to rely purely on the public network.Although public charging infrastructure is growing at pace globally,it is still a potential barrier to electrifying the last 20% of the market without further policy support.

* Changes in the U.S from the mod 2020,when the U.S accelerates quickly due to a high number of households with two or more vehicles & access to home charging options.The EV share of sales in some larger markets in Europe like Germany reach around 90% by 2040.small markets like the Nordics & the Netherlands get there much sooner.

*EV take longer to spread in India,Southeast Asia & our rest of World countries,where policy support is limited & stripped down,& low-cost IC vehicles are hard to beat on price.sales grow rapidly in the 2030 as the economics improve in these price-sensitive markets,but different start times.

*The fleet of IC passengers vehicles keeps growing until 2027 in the ETS,but declining steadily.Despite the relatively rapid growth of EV Sales this takes time to flow through to the fleet & there are still over 900 million ICE vehicles on the road in 2040 more than half the fleet.

*Fuel cells vehicles start to be sold at volume in a few markets in the 2030, but with just 8.6 million on the road in 2040

*sales of electric light-duty vans grow to close to a third party of the global market for LCV by 2030 & reach almost 60% by 2040.All-electric ones quickly become the majority & are close to two-thirds of the electric market by 2030.In some markets such as in Europe & south Korea,electric LCV sales reach 50% by 2030.In heavier segments,sales of electric trucks reach 30% by 2030,but some countries go much higher.

1. Buses & two & three-wheeled vehicles achieve the highest EV adoption rates by 2040 in ETS

2. LCV by 2040

3. There are over 600 million passenger EV on the road & over 750 million electric two-and three wheeler.

Number of EV on the Road:

In Years	2/3-Wheelers-In Millions	Passenger Car-In millions
2020	300	20
2030	400	300
2040	800	650

Light Duty Vehicles-Diesel & Gasoline/Medium Duty-Electric as well as fuel cell/Heavy Duty(Natural Gas)

In Millions	In Years	In Millions	In Years	In Millions	In Years
25	2040	2040	2.5	4	2040

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