"Impacts on batteries,metals,charging & infrastructures & emissions"

EV batteries demand is also rising quickly,with 2020 shipments 45% higher than in 2019.By 2030, demand grows almost 15-fold to 2576 GWh in the ETS. Manufactures have announced plans totaling 2539 GWh of annual capacity due by 2025. China still dominates,but capacity is growing in other regions.

1. Average battery pack prices go below $100/KWh on a volume-weighted average basis by 2024.driven by the introduction of new cell chemistry 7 manufacturing quipment & techniques.Simplified pack designs for battery-electric vehicle platforms also help.

2. New battery chemistry are being adopted faster than past.

3. We expect the supply of lithium,cobalt,manganese & nickle to be sufficient to meet lithium-ion battery demand out until 2030 under our ETS. New refining facilities & investment will be required,but we are confident the market will respond to this need. under out Net Zero Scenario the rapid increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries will require huge volumes of raw materials.

4. To evaluate the impacts of this we have created two chemistry-mix scenarios.Our base chemistry mix relies heavily on the current known reserves.

5. Battery recycling is a critical enabler without it by 2050 cumulative lithium demand exceeds currently known reserves.With universal battery recycling,however,not only does primary lithium demand remain below known reserves, but there is also the prospect of a fully circular battery industry, with supply of recycled lithium exceeding total annual demand by mid-century.

6. overall EV adoption is not derailed by metals supply constraints even,despite the very large volume of material that will be required.For metals like manganese supply from currently known reserves is sufficient to meet demand upto 2050.in order to keep demand in balance for lithium,nickle & cobalt a range of approaches will be needed that will require government,automakers,cell manufacturers,miners & recycles to work together.This includes the need for dense charging networks,new cell chemistries,widespread recycling & investment in new mining & refining capacity.

7. The trend over the last decade has been for average battery ---pack sizes to increase.This may not continue & could reverse.We have modeled the impact on material demand if battery pack sizes were 25% lower by 2040. As an example battery packs for SUV would average 54KWh,instead of 71KWh. In this analysis lithium-ion batteries would be 18% lower.

8. Further,reductions in average battery pack size are possible,& desirable.There is a strong argument for governments investing heavily in public EV charging infrastructure networks,because denser networks can help enable much smaller battery packs.

Emissions:

1. CO2 emissions from road transport bounce back relatively quick Covid-19 pandemic & return to above 2019 levels by 2023.Despite the rapid EV. Despite the rapid EV emissions from road transportation do not speak until 2030.after peaking in 2030,road transport CO2 emissions in 2050 are 28% below 2019 levels

2. Heavy trucks account for 59% of all remaining direct road transport CO2 emissions in 2050.urgent need for this segment especially in truck divisions etc

3. Rate of emissions reductions sharply from 2030 onward as more IC vehicles are taken-off the road.These fig.refer to tailpipe emissions only. benefits of electric & hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will also require rapid decarbonization of the power sector & hydrogen production.

its means in 2050 NET ZERO SCENARIO WILL BE TAILPIPE EMISSIONS

Charging Infrastructures:

1. By 2040 the charging networks needs to grow to over 309 million chargers across all locations.The total is dominated by home chargers,which reach 270 million in this time period & account for 87% of the total network,there are 24 million public chargers 12 million workplace chargers & 4 million bus & truck chargers required.